The Rise and Fall of the CD

Okay people, today I started doing some thinking. What else can you do when you're trying to pretend that you're about two minutes away from frostbite and you know that your city bus isn't going to come for another five--if it's a good day.

Recently, while browsing a music news site, I came across an account of Fall Out Boy. Normally, I could not give two ticks about them, but I read the articles anyways. Somehow their latest album has leaked to the net, and they are up in arms about it. They tried bumping up the release date, but the record company won't agree. One of the band members, if I may paraphrase, said something to the effect that they have been told that they may be one of the last bands to sell records. I read that and my first--highly cynical--thought was So, Fall Out Boy is going to be the last "big" band ever? They are the last stand of an imminent musical apocalypse? Well, if that's the case, we're screwed.

After snickering, I took a moment to think this over. Is this the end of the CD, the album? MP3 players are here, and it's easier to have one iPod than fifteen CD's. Let me paint you a post CD era, Orsen Wells style. Band websites will become like street vendors, where you will go and buy the song(s). No more CD's, your home stereo system is useless to the newer material.
Now, some people are probably arguing that the CD won't die out. Vinyls never died out, but it's quite difficult to get a vinyl compared to your average CD. There are no vinyls in Wal-Mart. Yes, there will be diehards (me among them) that even if there is only a digital download of the songs, will burn CD's and pretend it's the real thing. It'll be cheaper than going and ordering the CD.

Barely anyone will be buying CD's compared to the digitals, so companies aren't going to be putting as much of their resources into them. I don't mean to whine, but I do enjoy a nice-looking CD case. It's something to look at while I listen instead of staring at the flaking paint on my walls.

Amidst all this I can see a few bonuses. The first might be a pro or a con, depending on your preference. In order to sell CD's, current bands might be swayed towards creating albums, not the usual "three singles and nine other supporting songs". This "album" concept doesn't mean rock operas galore, but solid packs of music. You're going to get more bang for your buck.
So, right now, it is cheaper to buy a digital. You pay more for a CD, well, because you get a few chunks of plastic and some paper in the bargain. That extra revenue, with the demise of the CD, will be gone.

Where are the companies going to make that up? In the profit areas they already have. Merchandise. But what can you do right now to enhance the merchandise market? We've already got Green Day shoelaces and Guns 'N Roses briefs. Anything else seems beyond ridiculous--cutlery sets? printed toilet paper? floor tiles?

At this point, I started to worry that the days of the flashy rockstars were at end. Then, it just so happened that a song from a band of rockstars drifted into my mind. The light bulb went on. Who took the crown for highest grossing tour, more than once? U2. You can make money with tours. At this point I heard Billie Joe going in a pre-American Idiot interview "Yeah, I think on this tour we actually lost money." They lost money because of their battle to keep ticket prices low enough for the mere mortals to afford. U2 has one of the highest ticket prices out there, but everyone says that they're amazing.

People still flock to see them, regardless of price. I don't know the attendance numbers, and I am going to assume that Green Day drew bigger crowds and had more shows in the year. (were not U2 doing their Vertigo tour in 05?) I'm will to bet that even with their low tickets, Green Day made money off of that tour. With heavyweights like U2 and the Stones, concerts aren't going to be shut down right away.

More revenue can come from the shows. And you don't have to necessarily jack up the prices to 200$ for the nosebleed section. What you do is make it so that people want to see the show. I am looking in the direction of a day when bands will have to prove that they can perform. They will have to be what I used call a "double threat." They will have to be musical, but they will also have to be entertainers. Venue sizes, unfortunately for those of us who like the smaller more intimate atmosphere, are going to have to go up. The art of concert will explode in order to save the current bands who don't perform too well.

Sales of studio-recorded CD's are not going to have such a strong foundation. Talent is going to lose some clout. We're not going to be looking for "Yeah, they're going to sell us a lot of CD's". We'll be looking for, "Yeah, they're going to sell us a lot of concert tickets." People that can't put on a good show are going to find that life isn't so easy. That isn't to say people with Ramone-esque lyrics are going to take over. The flashy rockstar isn't going to go extinct. It's going to flourish through natural selection.

Fall Out Boy may verily be the last band that sells records, the last big band that doesn't (in my opinion) make the double threat grade.

People with pure talent, pure passion, pure drive are going to come to the forefront. Maybe I'm being idealistic, but I think it's a better future than sitting on the computer with my old CD, the headphones on, and thinking Man, that'd be a great live song. Too bad they don't tour.
Posted on January 31st, 2007 at 08:42pm

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